2017 Telecom Predictions from Carnegie Technologies

Net Neutrality Repealed, Faster Wireless Speeds, IoT Security Compromises, Further Industry Consolidation and more mark an interesting year to come

San Antonio, TX and Austin, TX (January 10, 2017) – Carnegie Technologies, developers of the Network Convergence Platform for mobile network operatorswireline carriers, Internet service providers and smart car manufacturers released today its Telecom industry predictions for 2017.  Predictions include insight from Paul Struhsaker, CTO of Carnegie Labs and Contributing Analyst at Tirias Research, a high-tech research and advisory firm with in-depth expertise in silicon, software, and systems specification, design and deployment.

2017 is expected to be a busy, exciting and interesting year for the telecommunications industry:

2017 Wireless Predictions:

·      5G fixed wireless field trials will be conducted in the United States (by Verizon and AT&T), paving the way for wireless speeds on par with cable and other broadband connections.  The trials will show promise of the technology but will unveil issues with the targeted 27GHz frequency band.  Equivalent testing will be performed around the globe.

·      Comcast will launch their MVNO service.  Charter Communications will likely follow in Comcast’s footprint, deploying their MVNO service in 2018.  In a parallel move, Comcast will be participating in the next round of FCC spectrum auctions. The only open question is if Comcast will create or join a consortium of cable industry partners in the FCC bidding process. Cable industry efforts to interwork Cellular with their extensive Wi-Fi assets will likely be based on a Cable Labs-derived standard, which will arrive well ahead of 3GPP standards efforts.

·      Verizon will fully commit to Unlicensed LAA deployment, delivering improved broadband service to Verizon customers.

·      Apple will continue to lose significant market share in China due to its decreasing product innovation.  North America and Europe will become more important to the company as political pressure mounts to move production back to the United States.


2017 Broadband Predictions:

•     All major providers will move to a Deep Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)/Pedestal and wireless connection to the premise model. This hybrid fiber-wireless model is more cost effective than direct fiber connection, and it allows simple and flexible upgrades as 5G radio technology improves.   The only exception is Altice, which is doubling down on an all fiber bet in its NY, NJ, and CN footprint of three million subscribers. 

·      While Elon Musk and others are making a lot of noise and getting the PR about new space-based satellite systems, OneWeb and Viasat will actually follow through on their broadband plans. Iridium will finally get their upgraded satellites in place and will remain a workhorse for moderate low cost / mobile satellite applications.

·      Net Neutrality rule will be repealed by the FCC with the support of a pro-big business and a Republican-controlled Congress and President.


2017 Consumer Device Predictions:

·      Security issues will plague the growing home IoT market. 

·      The opening of the source codes for Microsoft Cortana, Google Voice, Amazon and other cloud voice recognition will generate an expanding market for voice activated intelligent devices.  Voice-activated technology will also roll out on cable companies’ set top boxes.

·      High-end Virtual Reality PC-based gaming platforms will drop in price by nearly 50% from $1500 to $750 for Christmas 2017. It’s partly due to the upcoming successful PlayStation and Xbox launches of VR in 2017.

·      While the focus has been on Virtual Reality, major strides will continue in practical Augmented Reality solutions. The big Question: will Magic Leap roll out its highly secretive platform in 2017?


2017 IoT Predictions:

·      Agricultural IoT will further advance in 2017. Low cost commercially available herd animal tracking systems that can cover ranches of all sizes will make their debut.  Ranchers will be able to track their herds’ vital statistics via smart phone and pinpoint the location of stray animals more easily and effectively.

·      Security will take center stage in consumer and commercial IoT, especially access to critical systems in vehicles of all types, including cars, drones, farm combines, and more.   Automakers will be looking for ways to manage vehicles’ connectivity securely and reliably.

·      Despite great fanfare for a number of competing standards for public IoT networks in the unlicensed frequency bands, 2017 will see one or more players fail.  Non-cellular IoT is more likely to be successful in private network deployments limited to campus/factory, city, orfarm/ranch coverage.


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